Get a full Georgia vs Mississippi State preview with odds, predictions, and model-based picks for Saturday’s SEC matchup. Breakdown includes player stats, betting trends, and analytics to help guide your college football wagers.

Georgia vs Mississippi State Preview: Odds, Predictions, and Key Storylines for Saturday’s SEC Clash

The SEC is stacking drama late in the season, and Saturday’s showdown between the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs and the Mississippi State Bulldogs has plenty riding on it. Georgia continues to sharpen its College Football Playoff resume, while Mississippi State is fighting to stay bowl-eligible and pull off one of the biggest upsets of the year. With both teams coming off tight wins last week, momentum and urgency will collide in Starkville.

Kickoff is set for noon ET at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field, and the latest odds list Georgia as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 56.5 total points. Before fans lock in their bets, the SportsLine Projection Model has weighed in after running 10,000 simulations on this matchup.

Let’s break down the key storylines, strengths on both sides, updated betting odds, and what the advanced analytics are predicting for this SEC battle.

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Georgia Looks to Strengthen Playoff Case

Georgia didn’t have an easy time on the road last week, edging out Florida 24–20, but good teams survive tough games. Now at 7-1 overall and 5-1 in the SEC, the Bulldogs have won four straight and remain undefeated on the road this season.

Gunner Stockton Leading a Balanced Georgia Offense

Junior quarterback Gunner Stockton has been one of the steadiest signal-callers in the SEC this year. Through eight games:

• 161-of-229 passing (70.3 percent)
• 1,776 yards
• 12 touchdowns
• Only 2 interceptions
• 71 rushing attempts for 290 yards and 7 rushing TDs

Stockton’s dual-threat ability gives Georgia flexibility offensively, especially in red-zone and short-yardage situations. His best performance came in the thrilling 44-41 overtime win over Tennessee on September 13, where he stacked over 300 passing yards and three total touchdowns.

Chauncey Bowens Helping Georgia Control the Ground Game

Freshman running back Chauncey Bowens has quietly turned into one of the more efficient runners in the conference. Through eight games, he’s piled up:

• 446 rushing yards
• 5.6 yards per carry
• 5 touchdowns

Bowens has broken off big plays throughout the season. His standout moment came against Alabama, where he ran for 119 yards and a touchdown on just 12 carries. If Georgia wants to cover the spread on the road, Bowens will need to help control the tempo and keep the offense out of obvious passing downs.

Injuries to Watch

Georgia enters the matchup with five players ruled out, including depth pieces across multiple positions. Defensive back Demello Jones is listed as questionable, and his availability could be important against MSU’s vertical passing game.

Mississippi State Aims to Shock the SEC

Mississippi State (5-4, 1-4 SEC) hasn’t had the smoothest conference run, but last week’s 38-35 win over Arkansas put a spark back into the team. Playing at home in Starkville always brings an edge, and the Bulldogs will need every bit of that energy to hang with a top-five opponent.

Although Mississippi State is just 1-3 against ranked teams, the offense has been explosive enough to give fans hope entering Saturday.

Blake Shapen Playing His Best Football

Senior quarterback Blake Shapen has been rolling with confidence. Across nine starts, he has:

• 166-of-255 passing (65.1 percent)
• 2,148 yards
• 15 touchdowns
• 6 interceptions

He’s gone toe-to-toe with some of the conference’s best defenses and produced at a high level. His most impressive outing came in a heartbreaking 45-38 overtime loss to Texas, where he threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns.

If Mississippi State is going to cover the spread or flirt with an upset, Shapen will need to be sharp from the opening whistle.

Brenen Thompson Is the Game-Breaker to Watch

Senior wide receiver Brenen Thompson is the ultimate big-play threat for MSU. Through nine games:

• 41 receptions
• 716 yards
• 17.5 yards per catch
• 6 touchdowns

He’s coming off a 107-yard performance against Arkansas, and his ability to stretch the field vertically could challenge Georgia’s secondary, especially if Demello Jones is limited or out.

MSU Injury Notes

Mississippi State lists five players out, but starting safety Isaac Smith is probable. His presence will be huge in trying to slow down Gunner Stockton’s passing game.

Georgia vs Mississippi State: Odds, Trends, and Model Predictions

Current Odds

• Spread: Georgia -9.5
• Total: 56.5
• Moneyline: Georgia favored

SportsLine’s Projection Model, which has historically delivered strong margins in FBS spread selections, has found value on two fronts:

• The model is projecting the Under on the total, forecasting around 56 combined points.
• It also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60 percent of simulations.

The full pick is available at SportsLine, but the numbers suggest a tight matchup with Georgia likely controlling the pace.

What’s at Stake on Saturday?

For Georgia, the mission is simple: survive, advance, and keep the playoff path clean. A road win won’t just preserve their national standing, but it’ll also apply pressure to Ole Miss and Alabama in the SEC race.

For Mississippi State, this is the definition of a season-defining opportunity. A win over the No. 5 team in the nation would instantly change the narrative, bolster bowl prospects, and give the Bulldogs their marquee victory of the year.